Lethality profile of probable dengue cases in Brasil in 2024

Abstract

Introduction: Dengue is an endemic arboviral disease in Brazil, characterized by a broad clinical spectrum, ranging from oligosymptomatic manifestations to severe forms. Given its potential to progress to fatal outcomes, the objective of this study is to delineate the lethality profile of dengue according to disease severity, as well as patients’ gender and age. Additionally, the study aims to determine the incidence of the disease based on seasonality and geographic distribution across Brazilian regions, thereby providing evidence to inform public health strategies for improving prognosis and disease management. Methods: This is a descriptive cross-sectional study based on data from probable cases of dengue reported in Brazil in 2024. Data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), made available by the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS). Results: In 2024, a total of 6,442,122 probable dengue cases were reported in Brazil. The majority of cases (89.18%) presented without warning signs. However, among the minority of cases with warning signs (1.53%) or severe dengue (0.53%), the lethality rates were significantly higher. The lethality rate for dengue without warning signs was 3 per 10,000 cases, whereas it increased to 97.2 per 10,000 for dengue with warning signs, and reached 4,163 per 10,000 for severe dengue. The highest number of notifications occurred among females (54.53%), individuals aged 20 to 49 years (34.45%), residents of the Southeast region (64.43%), and during the months of February to May 2024 (84.57%). However, the lethality profile differed from this epidemiological pattern: dengue-related deaths were more frequent among males, individuals at the extremes of age (<1 year and ≥60 years), and residents of the Central-West region. Conclusion: Understanding the lethality profile of dengue is essential for identifying the populations most vulnerable to fatal outcomes of the disease, which remains the most prevalent and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral infection in humans. These findings underscore the importance of implementing targeted public health interventions aimed at improving the prognosis and long-term survival of high-risk groups.